9 to 15 May: In Uncertain Times

Fund Flow Data last week revealed further outflows from equities. This means the current quarter has now seen the largest decline in allocations since Q4 2008. This doesn’t necessarily point towards global recession, but it does show the effect of increased uncertainty. The FED is data dependent and asset prices are FED dependent, which leaves the US with little clear guidance and biased towards “bad (economic data) news is good news”.

China’s stimulus had some initial success, but a lack of transparency clouds the longer run inference. Japan is suffering from policy failure and, although it is most likely the next step is another round of fiscal stimulus and targeted rate cuts, nobody really knows what comes next. Then there is the UK Brexit vote and persistent oil price volatility.

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