9 to 15 January: Waiting for Donald

Markets hoped President Trump might deliver details of his stimulus agenda last week, but instead witnessed a dis-jointed press conference focused on protectionism and his personal agenda. As highlighted last week, markets face the dichotomy of a better near-term growth outlook and higher political risk across the globe. We tend to think volatility is under-priced (the VIX index sits at 11.54; it has been higher 97% of the time since 1990).

This week US markets are closed for Martin Luther King Day today, Teresa May outlines her Brexit strategy on Tuesday, there is an ECB meeting on Thursday and Donald Trump is inaugurated on Friday.

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