31 October to 6 November: Playing the Trump Card

Anxiety ahead of the US elections has drip-fed global equities lower over the past 2 weeks. Certainly, it is clear that a Trump victory is seen as market negative – and on this the Mexican Peso and recent polls had suggested the probability of a Republican victory was improving. However, news on Sunday that the FBI will take no action against Democrat candidate Clinton, after a lengthy email probe, has restored market optimism. Assuming no Brexit style surprise, the FED will almost surely raise rates in December, whilst we think a (temporarily) better broader growth picture may support risk assets into the end of the year.

Elsewhere, it looks like Saudi Arabia top ticked the oil price. After hitting a 15-month high on the day of their landmark bond deal, the price of crude has been obliterated, falling 10% last week. This was due not only to perceived difficulties in implementing an OPEC production cut, but also a record build in US oil stocks. As a reminder, Saudi Arabia plan to list up to 5% of the state oil company “Aramco” in 2018 – look out for the oil price surge prior!.

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