30 January to 5 February: Dragging Feet

This week’s market moves, policy announcements and political news flow provided a very good summary of the current outlook. Coincident economic data is unequivocally positive, but investors and central banks are tentative because of a plethora of political risks:

  • Trump on immigration, trade, fiscal stimulus (and more)
  • Brexit
  • French Elections
  • Greece (again)
  • Italy snap elections

Of course, valuations and liquidity don’t help either; the “inflation and growth scare” has already prompted a sharp repricing, with limited asymmetry in return across most assets. The exception is perhaps select emerging markets.

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