World trade volumes continued to recover in July, when global trade rose 4.8% MoM. According to the CPB’s report, ‘the rebound arises from the fact that in a lot of countries lockdown measures have been lifted.’ Consequently, world trade in goods in July recovered to a level 6% below the pre-pandemic levels. The recovery may carry on in August and onwards based on the increasingly optimistic Global PMI prints.
The US Presidential election is now almost within reach (to be held on 3rd November). According to the Guardian’s US elections polls tracker, Joe Biden continues to lead Donald Trump in the national polls. Although Mr. Biden maintains the lead over Mr. Trump in terms of the popular vote, the electoral college votes still hang in the balance. The Guardian reports that in some swing states (a total of 57 electoral votes), such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin, Mr. Biden commands a wide margin. However, in others (a total of 68 electoral votes), such as Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Iowa, either Mr. Trump leads or the two candidates are head-to-head with each other. The first Presidential debate will be held on the 29th September (Tuesday), where Mr. Trump’s and Mr. Biden’s records, the Supreme Court, the coronavirus pandemic, the economy, race and violence in cities and the integrity of the election will be on the agenda.
This week, In addition to the first round of US Presidential debates, investors will be monitoring the September jobs report. The ADP employment report will come Wednesday, followed by weekly data Thursday and the Labor Department’s monthly non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate Friday. In the EM space, PMIs will draw markets’ attention, as they will shed further light on the robustness of the economies and the sustainability of the ongoing recovery.
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