26 February to 4 March: Unchartered Waters

Over the weekend and in the coming week, a number of events could impact the short-term direction of travel for markets:

  • Sunday, the SPD in Germany ratified a coalition deal that secured Angela Merkel’s 4th term as chancellor and Italy held a general election, with exit polls suggesting a hung parliament.
  • Thursday, the ECB may change their forward guidance after their March monetary policy meeting
  • Friday, the US employment report for February will confirm whether wage growth in the US has experienced a genuine acceleration and the BOJ in Japan will announce a policy update

Whatever the near term volatility, we continue to see global growth as sufficiently resilient to deal with this period of adjustment for at least the next 6-9 months.

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