26 August to 1 September: Labour market metrics in the US to be closely watched this week

Over the weekend a new round of tariffs came into effect in the saga of the US-China trade wars. With no trade deal in sight between the US and China anytime soon, markets will need to find comfort in macro data releases. Last week, it was confirmed that the US consumer was alive and kicking, as consumer spending largely drove real GDP growth in 2Q19. This week the usual monthly labour market statistics will be revealed (including the change in non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and earnings). Should the metrics continue to signal that the labour market is healthy and strong, the Treasury market will have a chance to dial back its pessimistic take on the US economy’s near-term growth prospects – unless US President Trump and Chinese President Xi find something new to disagree on.

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