12 to 18 October: Emerging Asia to lead global economic recovery

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the World Economic Outlook’s latest issue including an updated assessment on the world economy and revised growth projections. According to the IMF, global GDP could contract by as much as 4.4% in 2020, followed by a 5.2% recovery in 2021. From a regional standpoint, developed economies face a steeper contraction of 5.8% this year and a subsequently shallower recovery of 3.9% in 2021 relative to emerging economies, where GDP decline is foreseen at 3.3% this year followed by a 6% bounce in 2021. However, the economic recovery across the EM space could be unequal across regions with Asia being the first out of the slump followed by the rest of emerging economies.

There is only two weeks to go until the Presidential election in the US. Joe Biden continues to lead Donald Trump in the national polls (51.9% to 41.3%, according to the Guardian’s poll tracker on the 18^th October), which means that the former Vice President will likely win the popular vote, as did Hillary Clinton in 2016. However, receiving the highest number of votes does not automatically translate into a Presidential victory, as electoral votes are key. All eyes are on the swing states now.

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