19 to 25 November: No relief for crude oil prices before OPEC meeting

As we noted in our Global Market Update issue last week, oil prices came under pressure due to various factors, one of them being the POTUS’ wish for lower oil prices. Crude oil prices continued to tumble during the week, and as a result, the per barrel price of both Brent and WTI for January delivery dropped 10-11%, hitting USD 50.4 and USD 58.8, respectively. President Trump has already celebrated lower prices by tweeting ‘Oil prices getting lower. Great! […] Thank you to Saudi Arabia, but let’s go lower!’ OPEC will be meeting to discuss and coordinate the strategy of the cartel on 6th December. Until then uncertainty is unlikely to fade in the oil market, which implies that volatility is likely to remain elevated.

The economic diary contains plenty of relevant and potentially market-moving releases within the developed space for the week. The US is going to reveal the second read of the Q3 GDP figure, PCE inflation measures for October (the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation) and the minutes from the FOMC’s last monetary policy meeting. Meanwhile, ECB policymakers – including President Draghi – will give speeches. Furthermore, November inflation statistics will be published for the Euro Area.

Several important macroeconomic indicators are scheduled for this week. In Asia, Vietnam releases the monthly macroeconomic indicators for November, China reveals the November manufacturing PMI, while India published Q3 GDP statistics. Latin American markets will mainly focus on Mexican retail sales growth in September, the Brazilian current account and Q3 GDP, and on the monetary policy meeting of the Colombian central bank. Within the African space, Kenya will be the most active in terms of relevant data releases, as the country is scheduled to publish CPI inflation for November, while its central bank may decide on the policy rate.

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