11 to 17 November: US officials sound optimistic on a Phase One trade deal

Top US and Chinese trade negotiators had aconstructive callon Saturday. It is welcome news that headlines have turned more positive after a week of setbacks. Although US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, US Secretary of Commerce Ross and US Presidential Advisor Kudlow made reassuring statements that there was a ‘very high probability’ of a deal, their Chinese counterparts remained quiet. It remains uncertain whether the two parties will eventually sign anything by the end of the year, and even if they do so, further frictions may persist. For the time being, markets seem to be pricing in a swift interim Phase One trade agreement between the world’s two largest economies.

This week the global economic diary remains fairly light on relevant economic data releases. Markets will be focussing on two key things: the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and any piece of news related to the trade talks.

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