20 to 26 February: Ides of March

After 3 weeks of heightened volatility, there were still signs of nervousness last week, but only small aggregate moves. We think there are a number of event risks in March, which could shape near term sentiment:

• 4^th March = A general election in Italy and the confirmation (or not) of the “grand coalition” in Germany. Failure to form a government in Italy and continuation of a minority government in Germany, would be negative for French President Macron’s vision of further European integration
• 8^th March = An ECB meeting at which we expect a change to forward guidance
• 9^th March = US employment data, which may confirm an acceleration of average hourly earnings
• 21^st March = A FED meeting at which we expect a 25bps rate hike

DOWNLOAD THE FULL ARTICLE