14 to 20 September: The Fed has recalibrated market expectations

The Federal Reserve made it clear that interest rates are going to stay at the zero-lower bound at least until 2024. This was probably no surprise to anyone. On the other hand, the message also included a firm(er) guidance on the prospects for the QE programme:  the Fed Chair ruled out the further expansion of the scope and size of asset purchases, should the economic recovery stay on course. In our view, the message was clear not to expect any additional easing measures on top of the already existing programmes. With that in mind, investors may re-focus their attention on the US administrations’ efforts to draw up bill on additional fiscal support as well as the upcoming Presidential election (3rd November). According to the latest polls, Mr. Biden maintains a 4-11-point lead over President Trump (according to the polls referenced by the New York Times). The question is whether the potential win of the popular vote translates into a sufficient number of electoral votes for Mr. Biden to take over the steering wheel.

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