2 to 8 December: Let it grow, let it grow, let it grow!

Last week was an emotional rollercoaster for global investor sentiment, due to US President Trump’s blunt remarks that singing a trade deal with China could wait until after the US Presidential election in 2020. Shortly after the POTUSs communique, Bloomberg reported that the US and China were close to agree on the amount of tariffs to be rolled back and added that the scheduled tariff hikes for the 15th December could be delayed (or maybe even cancelled). The report stabilised risk appetite to some extent. On Friday, the latest jobs report positively surprised the market, as the data was unexpectedly very strong and implied that the US’ domestic economy remains in good place. In our opinion, domestic economic drivers in the US remain robust, which makes the world’s largest economy largely resilient to the weakness in world trade and global manufacturing activity. Overall, we arrive at the conclusion that recession fears are overstated – especially if we take into account the Fed’s accommodative approach, who stands ready to provide support to prevent a sharp economic slowdown.

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