On the face of it, last week’s equity market sell-off, the worst in 2 years for the US, was all about the threat of Donald Trump starting a trade war. The reality is a little more nuanced:
Whilst we certainly do not wish to ignore the danger of US led geopolitical upheaval, our core outlook remains unchanged. We are in a new more volatile regime, given marginal headwinds are building, but we expect global growth to continue. Greater uncertainty is particularly the case in the US, which we see as later cycle than its global peers.
Bucking the risk-off trend last week, were oil markets. Crude prices hit seven-week highs, following the biggest weekly gain in 8 months, after increased tension in the Middle East and speculation OPEC could extend output limits.DOWNLOAD THE FULL ARTICLE View All Global Market Updates
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