19 to 25 February: Ides of March

After 3 weeks of heightened volatility, there were still signs of nervousness last week, but only small aggregate moves. We think there are a number of event risks in March, which could shape near term sentiment:

  • 4th March = A general election in Italy and the confirmation (or not) of the “grand coalition” in Germany. Failure to form a government in Italy and continuation of a minority government in Germany, would be negative for French President Macron’s vision of further European integration
  • 8th March = An ECB meeting at which we expect a change to forward guidance
  • 9th March = US employment data, which may confirm an acceleration of average hourly earnings
  • 21st March = A FED meeting at which we expect a 25bps rate hike
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